2026 Canadian Premier League
Playoff Race
Eight clubs. Four places. Follow the race to the postseason.
2Clinched a place
5In contention
1Eliminated
18Matches remaining
Select a club’s details for remaining fixtures and its path to a playoff spot. How the numbers work ↓
Swipe the table to see odds and magic numbers →
| Club / status | Points | Left | Playoff odds | To clinch points earned | To elimination points dropped |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 5 | 100% | Clinched | — | |
| 47 | 5 | 100% | Clinched | — | |
| 37 | 4 | >99.9% | 3 | Depends on rivals | |
| 33 | 3 | 82.5% | 7 | Depends on rivals | |
| 26 | 4 | 4.5% | Needs help | 6 | |
| 25 | 5 | 12.3% | 15 | 8 | |
| 24 | 5 | 0.7% | Needs help | 6 | |
| 14 | 5 | 0% | — | Eliminated |
Top four qualify • Line marks the current playoff cutoff
Cavalry FC5 matches left
Path to the playoffs
A top-four finish is guaranteed, even if every remaining result goes against this club.
A win earns 3 and drops 0; a draw earns 1 and drops 2; a loss earns 0 and drops 3. Targets recalculate after completed matches.
Remaining fixtures
Forge FC5 matches left
Path to the playoffs
A top-four finish is guaranteed, even if every remaining result goes against this club.
A win earns 3 and drops 0; a draw earns 1 and drops 2; a loss earns 0 and drops 3. Targets recalculate after completed matches.
Remaining fixtures
Atlético Ottawa4 matches left
Path to the playoffs
Earn at least 3 more points across the remaining matches to guarantee a place regardless of rivals’ results.
There is no verified elimination threshold based solely on this club dropping points. Rival results still matter.
A win earns 3 and drops 0; a draw earns 1 and drops 2; a loss earns 0 and drops 3. Targets recalculate after completed matches.
Remaining fixtures
- vs Cavalry FC
- at Pacific FC
- vs Forge FC
- at Inter Toronto FC
Vancouver FC3 matches left
Path to the playoffs
Earn at least 7 more points across the remaining matches to guarantee a place regardless of rivals’ results.
There is no verified elimination threshold based solely on this club dropping points. Rival results still matter.
A win earns 3 and drops 0; a draw earns 1 and drops 2; a loss earns 0 and drops 3. Targets recalculate after completed matches.
Remaining fixtures
HFX Wanderers FC4 matches left
Path to the playoffs
No verified points target guarantees qualification on this club’s results alone. Rival results or tiebreakers may be needed.
Drop at least 6 points from the 12 still available and qualification becomes impossible, even with favourable rival results.
A win earns 3 and drops 0; a draw earns 1 and drops 2; a loss earns 0 and drops 3. Targets recalculate after completed matches.
Remaining fixtures
- at Forge FC
- vs Cavalry FC
- at Vancouver FC
- vs FC Supra du Québec
FC Supra du Québec5 matches left
Path to the playoffs
Earn at least 15 more points across the remaining matches to guarantee a place regardless of rivals’ results.
Drop at least 8 points from the 15 still available and qualification becomes impossible, even with favourable rival results.
A win earns 3 and drops 0; a draw earns 1 and drops 2; a loss earns 0 and drops 3. Targets recalculate after completed matches.
Remaining fixtures
Inter Toronto FC5 matches left
Path to the playoffs
No verified points target guarantees qualification on this club’s results alone. Rival results or tiebreakers may be needed.
Drop at least 6 points from the 15 still available and qualification becomes impossible, even with favourable rival results.
A win earns 3 and drops 0; a draw earns 1 and drops 2; a loss earns 0 and drops 3. Targets recalculate after completed matches.
Remaining fixtures
Pacific FC5 matches left
Path to the playoffs
No remaining combination of results can put this club in the top four, even allowing favourable unresolved tiebreakers.
A win earns 3 and drops 0; a draw earns 1 and drops 2; a loss earns 0 and drops 3. Targets recalculate after completed matches.
Remaining fixtures
- at FC Supra du Québec
- at Forge FC
- vs Atlético Ottawa
- at Cavalry FC
- vs Forge FC
How the tracker works
Clinching & elimination
We search combinations of remaining wins, draws and losses together, respecting shared fixtures. A club is marked clinched or eliminated only when an exhaustive calculation proves it. Unresolved future score tiebreakers are allowed to favour either club, so a declaration may wait until it can be proven safely.
Magic numbers
“To clinch” is a sufficient additional points target that guarantees a place. “To elimination” is a sufficient total of dropped points that makes qualification impossible. These are targets across all remaining matches, not countdowns against a single rival. “Needs help” means no target has been proven from the club’s results alone. Rival results can settle the race sooner.
Estimated playoff odds
20,000 simulated finishes use a Poisson score model, season goals scored and conceded, eight league-average games of smoothing, and a 10% home scoring uplift with a corresponding away reduction. Each simulation applies the points and score tiebreakers. Remaining ties are randomly ordered because disciplinary points and U21 minutes are unavailable. Injuries, lineups and betting markets are not included. These estimates have not been calibrated against historical seasons.
A displayed <0.1% or >99.9% is an estimate. Only mathematical proof produces a 0% eliminated or 100% clinched label.
Rules & data
2026’s top four qualify. Ranking uses points, wins, reseeded head-to-head mini-tables, head-to-head goal difference, overall goal difference, goals scored, away goal difference, away goals, home goal difference and home goals. Disciplinary points, U21 minutes and the final drawing procedure are treated as unresolved when not available.
The full 28-match club schedules and standings are checked against final scores before calculation. In-progress scores are excluded. The page checks for updates every five minutes while open; the retrieval timestamp identifies the snapshot.